“The Loop”

Stargate was announced at the White House on 2025-01-21: $100B to start, up to $500B over four years

• ▸CBS News2025-01-21
• ▸The Washington Times2025-01-21

The FT reported Oracle would spend ~$40B on ~400,000 Nvidia chips for the Abilene Stargate site

• ▸DatacenterDynamics2025-05
• ▸TechSpot2025-05

The WSJ reported OpenAI agreed to buy ~$300B of Oracle computing over ~5 years from 2027; neither company confirmed the figure

• ▸The Register2025-09-11
• ▸DatacenterDynamics2025-09

Nvidia and OpenAI signed a letter of intent; Nvidia intends to invest up to $100B progressively as each gigawatt is deployed

• ▸NVIDIA2025-09-22
• ▸Bloomberg2025-09-22

Fortune asked whether the deals were circular financing; The Register called it the trillion-dollar loop

• ▸Fortune2025-09-28
• ▸The Register2025-11-04

Oracle reported $455B of remaining performance obligations in September 2025; the stock hit a record the next day

• ▸Oracle2025-09-09
• ▸DatacenterDynamics2025-09-09

Oracle's backlog reached $664B as of 2026-08-31; Reuters reported OpenAI is about half of it

• ▸Oracle2026-09-10
• ▸Yahoo Finance2026-09

Oracle shares fell more than half from the 2025-09-10 record, erasing ~$463B

• ▸Bloomberg2026-01-29
• ▸PYMNTS2026

Oracle's debt was ~$125B at 2026-08-31; S&P cut it to BBB- in July; its 5-year CDS were ~292 bp (CNBC) and ~294 bp (Axios, today), from under 100 a year earlier

• ▸CNBC2026-10-19
• ▸Axios2026-11-03

Oracle filed on 2026-11-02 to raise $20B (half stock, half bonds); shares fell; Oracle caps new market money at $20B and targets positive free cash flow in the second half of 2028

• ▸CNBC2026-11-02
• ▸Quartz2026-11-02
• ▸Bloomberg2026-11-02

Nvidia's 10-Q said there was no assurance of definitive agreements with OpenAI; CFO Colette Kress: "We still haven't completed a definitive agreement"

• ▸TechRadar2025-11
• ▸Fortune2025-12-02

Jensen Huang said a $100B OpenAI investment was "probably not in the cards" and the next might be the last before an IPO

• ▸Bloomberg2026-03-04
• ▸CNBC2026-03-04

Nvidia invested $30B in OpenAI's $122B round at an $852B valuation; Amazon committed $50B

• ▸CNBC2026-03-31
• ▸Bloomberg2026-03-31

Nvidia guaranteed up to $105B of OpenAI's lease and power payments for a Pike County, Ohio campus on 20-year leases; not cash; starts in fiscal 2029; shrinks as OpenAI pays; ends on a satisfactory credit rating; OpenAI reimburses

• ▸NVIDIA (Form 10-Q, quarter to July 2026)2026-08-26
• ▸Data Center Knowledge2026-08

Nvidia placed a $6.3B CoreWeave order and must buy unsold CoreWeave capacity through April 2032; CoreWeave sells to OpenAI

• ▸CNBC2025-09-15
• ▸BNN Bloomberg2025-09-25

CoreWeave carries about $35B of debt

• ▸Axios2026-10-16

AMD and OpenAI agreed a 6 GW deal; AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160M AMD shares at $0.01, vesting on deployment and share-price milestones; the first 1 GW was due from the second half of 2026

• ▸AMD2025-10-06
• ▸The Register2025-10-06
• ▸DatacenterDynamics2025-10

AWS revenue grew 39% in the quarter; Amazon said 2027 spending will be meaningfully higher

• ▸CNBC2026-10-29
• ▸Benzinga2026-10

Microsoft reported $45.2B of capital spending in the quarter to 2026-09-30, said some third-party capacity deliveries were delayed, and expects more than $50B in the December quarter

• ▸CNBC2026-10-28

In OpenAI's October 2025 restructuring Microsoft kept ~27% (~$135B), and OpenAI committed to buy $250B of Azure

• ▸Tom's Hardware2025-10
• ▸Business Standard2025-10-28

Microsoft recorded $10B of revenue from OpenAI in the quarter to 2026-09-30, about 11% of its revenue; Azure grew 48%

• ▸TechCrunch2026-10-28
• ▸24/7 Wall St.2026-10-29
• ▸CNBC2026-10-28

On 2025-11-03 AWS signed a $38B, seven-year deal to supply OpenAI with Nvidia GPUs

• ▸Data Center Knowledge2025-11
• ▸Advisor Perspectives (Bloomberg)2025-11-03
• ▸MediaPost2025-11

Amazon committed up to $50B to OpenAI ($35B conditional) and OpenAI expanded its AWS contract by $100B over eight years, largely on Amazon's own chips

• ▸OpenAI2026-02-27
• ▸CNBC2026-02-27
• ▸GeekWire2026

Amazon reported negative free cash flow of $42.4B and held 2026 capex at ~$220B

• ▸CNBC2026-10-29
• ▸RBN Energy2026

Microsoft and Nvidia agreed to invest up to $15B in Anthropic, which agreed to buy $30B of Azure compute

• ▸Bloomberg2025-11-18
• ▸PYMNTS2025-11

Altman put OpenAI's commitments at ~$1.4T over eight years and said OpenAI doesn't want a bailout

• ▸TechCrunch2025-11-06
• ▸DatacenterDynamics2025-11

OpenAI told investors its compute target is ~$600B by 2030

• ▸CNBC2026-02-20
• ▸Futurism2026-02

OpenAI's annualized revenue was ~$50B at end-September, below the ~$68B widely reported; run-rate growth 77% in Q3, enterprise 107%

• ▸Bloomberg2026-10-08
• ▸CNBC2026-10-08

The WSJ reported OpenAI missed internal targets and CFO Sarah Friar warned it could struggle to pay future compute contracts; Oracle, CoreWeave and Nvidia fell; OpenAI said it is aligned on buying compute

• ▸CNBC2026-04-28
• ▸Forbes2026-04-28

Friar floated a federal "backstop" and wrote the next day "I used the word 'backstop' and it muddied the point"

• ▸The Register2025-11-06
• ▸Quartz2025-11

Asked by reporters whether investors as a whole were overexcited about AI, Altman said "My opinion is yes"

• ▸Semafor2025-08-19
• ▸Fortune2025-08-19

Five tech giants are ~30% of the S&P 500; Morningstar's Zachary Evens said a pullback could drag down the indexes most 401(k) savers own

• ▸CNBC2026-09-18
• ▸Fortune2026-09-28

More than 80% of 401(k)s default into target-date index funds

• ▸Fortune2026-09-28

AI debt reaches target-date funds through bond index funds; some of Oracle's new investment-grade notes traded like junk, and ~$100B of investment-grade bonds traded at junk spreads in August; UBS called a cut to junk for Oracle unlikely

• ▸Bloomberg2025-12-12
• ▸Bloomberg2026-01-06
• ▸Quartz2026
• ▸The Edge Malaysia (Bloomberg)2026-08-05

Stocks were a record 33% of US household wealth at end-2025; the richest 10% own ~87% of household stock wealth

• ▸Axios2026-06-04

PJM found data centers are the primary reason for record capacity-auction prices; household bills are up as much as $18 a month in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan

• ▸Forbes2026-11-02
• ▸IEEFA2025

Data centers are not the only reason electric bills are rising

• ▸News4Jax2026-06-03

Nvidia's data-center revenue was $89.0B in the quarter to 2026-07-26; Huang: "compute is revenue"

• ▸NVIDIA2026-08-26

The BIS warned that circular AI financing is poorly disclosed and the same asset can be pledged more than once

• ▸The Next Web2026-06-28
• ▸ForkLog2026-06

The Bank of England said the risk of a sharp correction had risen, with valuations comparable to the dot-com peak

• ▸The Register2025-10-08
• ▸Tom's Hardware2025-10

After the dot-com peak the S&P 500 fell ~49% and the Nasdaq ~78%

• ▸The Motley Fool2024-07-24

Ed Yardeni argues the rally runs on earnings, not speculation; per his research, S&P 500 tech traded above 55x forward earnings in 2000

• ▸The Motley Fool2024-07-24
• ▸The Wealth Advisor2026-08-27

Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 48% in the quarter to 2026-09-30

• ▸CNBC2026-10-28
• ▸Microsoft2026-10-28

Oracle's 2066 bonds yield ~8.4% against ~6.1% for Apple and Microsoft bonds maturing in 2062

• ▸Quartz2026-11-02